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What Impact Does the Presidential Election have on the Charlotte Real Estate Market?
Author:Â Jamie Milam
Date:Â Â Â August 30, 2024
As the fall season approaches we tend to see some slower movement in the real estate market, with the exception of the wild west of 2020-2022. With this year being an election year, you may be wondering what, if any, impact the upcoming election might have on the housing trends. For many, that speculation can lead to thoughts of uncertainty, or even debilitation, when it comes to buying or selling a home in the remaining months of 2024. So let's dive into that a bit.
Here’s the good news that may surprise you: typically, Presidential elections have only had a small, temporary impact on the housing market. But you likely have questions about what happens to sales, pricing and mortgage rates - and they are definitely worth answering, so you don’t have to pause your plans in the meantime.
Thankfully, there's plenty of data from previous Presidential election cycles that backs this up, so you can move forward with the facts as you weigh the pros and cons of your homeownership decision.
Home Sales and Pricing Trends
Yes, typically homes sales slow down a bit the month before an election, but it bounces back fairly quickly. Just like all things in real estate, there's a wholistic picture to look at. Otherwise, some may think a current slow down is large in part to do with an election, when really, we have to also recognize that school is back in session, which slows the housing market down. And with elections being held in November, it's also nearing the holiday season, another notoriously slower part of the year in housing.
But again, it bounces right back, even in the non-Presidential election years, and continues to follow its rising trend the following year.
In fact, data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows after 9 of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales went up the year after the election, and it’s been happening consistently since the early 1990s as you can see in the chart below (left).
What about home prices? Are they affected by the election? Not typically. Instead, they follow whatever the price trend is in the current market. Again, data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows home prices did, in fact, rise after 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections (see chart below, right). So that's what we could expect to see here since the average sales price in our Charlotte Region is +7.8% from July 2023.Â
Mortgage Rates
Now that we've covered home sales and home prices, you're probably still wondering about mortgage rates since that greatly drives your monthly payment affordability. After all, interest rates during the last presidential election were near an all-time historic low. Thankfully, the beneficial trend continues. Looking at the last eleven Presidential elections, data provided by Freddie Mac shows that mortgage rates tend to decline between July and November in 8 of the last election years.
We've already started to see that happen again this year. At the beginning of August we started seeing the headlines that we were starting to see rates drop in 2024 to the mid-6% mark. By the end of August rates were still slowly trending downward to the lowest they'd been in 15 months.
Most experts also forecast mortgage rates will ease slightly throughout the rest of 2024. If that happens – and all signs right now indicate it should – this year will continue to follow the trend of declining rates. So, if you’re looking to buy a home in the coming months, this could be great news for your purchasing power.
What This Means for You
What’s the big takeaway? While Presidential elections do have some impact on the housing market, the effects are usually minimal and bounce back quickly.Â
While it’s natural to feel a bit uncertain during an election year, history shows the housing market remains strong and resilient. And this means you don’t have to pause your plans in the meantime. For sellers, know that buyers who are looking will be eager to take advantage of the lower interest rates. And buyers, it's your opportunity to also take advantage of less competition for the neighborhoods that may be more seasonally driven with the school year.
For help navigating a strategy that works for you, reach out for a consult today.
Campaigning for your best interest,
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Jamie Milam is a Realtor® in the Charlotte, NC area, licensed in both NC & SC, and has the ability to refer you to a number of agent partners across the nation, regardless of where you may live. She is an enthusiast for the power of awareness and believes it can be used in all facets of life to support aligned living.
**Disclosure** This post may contain affiliate links and they are at no additional cost to you, though I may earn a small commission. Don't worry, I only recommend products or services that I have tried or believe would be of great value to you! All opinions expressed are those of my own!
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